Soldiers prepare to destroy a ballistic missile at the former Soviet military rocket base in Vakulenchuk, Ukraine, 24 Dec 1997.
The US is not considering returning to Ukraine the nuclear weapons it gave up after the Soviet Union collapsed, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.
A New York Times article last month that said some unidentified Western officials had suggested US President Joe Biden could give Ukraine the arms before he leaves office.
“That is not under consideration, no. What we are doing is surging various conventional capacities to Ukraine so that they can effectively defend themselves and take the fight to the Russians, not [giving them] nuclear capability,” he told ABC.
Last week, Russia said the idea was “absolute insanity” and that preventing such a scenario was one of the reasons why Moscow sent troops into Ukraine.
Kiev inherited nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union after its 1991 collapse, as it inherited Crimea, but gave up its atomic arsenal under a 1994 agreement (the Budapest Memorandum), in return for security assurances from Russia, the US, and Britain.
Former US President Bill Clinton has expressed regret about his role in persuading Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons in 1994. Mr. Clinton suggested that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if Kiev still had its nuclear deterrent. These security commitments were broken in 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, and further shattered when it began a wider war against Ukraine in Feb 2022.
Russia’s 2025 Budget: 35% for National Defense
President Vladimir Putin has approved a new, multiyear budget that sets defense spending for next year at record-high levels, signaling no let-up in Russia’s determination to defeat Ukraine.
The approved budget, which was published on the government’s main website on December 1, calls for 35.5 percent of all spending to be allocated for national defense in 2025. That’s up from a reported 28.3 precent this year. The $145 billion defense-related spending is at a level not seen since the Cold War.
The flood of government spending has caused the economy to wobble in recent months. Officials have steadily ratcheted up already high wages and benefits for volunteer soldiers to fight in Ukraine, a sign that recruiting efforts are growing more difficult as the war stretches on more than 32 months.
But that has resulted in labor shortages in many industries, driving up wages and prices. Prices for basic staples like potatoes or butter have skyrocketed in recent month. The unemployment rate has dropped to 2.4 percent
The central bank, meanwhile, has hiked interest rates to levels not seen in years, in a bid to cool down the economy. But that in turn has dampened real estate transactions — as mortgages become unaffordable — and prompted business leaders to grouse about the potential for bankruptcies.
The “Guns versus Butter” argument faced by Western democracies is not an issue for authoritarian regimes like Russia or North Korea and the common man continues to suffer with food insecurity and malnourishment. Iran has been cutting back on social services to help fund its defense against Israel, evidenced by the poor quality of food being served in their national universities. You may remember my recent post about food poisoning in Iran and the complaints from the students and teachers.
Putin’s Hypersonic Missiles Not Invincible
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in a video address the day after the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile destroyed a target in Ukraine that his superweapon could not be intercepted:
There are “no means of countering such weapons today. Missiles attack targets at a speed of Mach 10, which is 2.5 to 3 kilometers per second. Air defense systems currently available in the world and missile defense systems being created by the Americans in Europe cannot intercept such missiles. It is impossible.”
The Oreshnik is a new, experimental intermediate-range missile derived from the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile. This hypersonic missile reached Mach 11 during its flight.
While hypersonic weapons present unique challenges to missile defense, experts and available evidence suggest that Putin’s claim is an exaggeration of the current technological realities.
Hypersonic missiles travel “at speeds greater than Mach 5” while maneuvering unpredictably, making them far more difficult to track and intercept than conventional ballistic missiles. Their speed and agility significantly cut the time defense systems have to respond, posing a serious challenge to current radar and sensor technologies.
However, describing interception as “impossible” ignores ongoing advancements in missile-defense technology. Systems such as the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense are designed to counter fast-moving threats, including some hypersonic missiles. While not foolproof, these systems are continually being upgraded to address evolving threats.
According to Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, the US and Israel possess anti-missile systems capable of shooting down an Oreshnik.
“Systems like SM-3 from Aegis or Aegis Ashore, as well as most likely Arrow 3 and THAAD, can absolutely deal with this type of threat,” Hoffmann told CNN on 22 Nov.
Several countries, including the US, are developing technologies specifically aimed at countering hypersonic threats. Key initiatives include:
a) The Glide Phase Interceptor being developed by Northrop Grumman in collaboration with Raytheon. These companies are working under contracts with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency to create a system capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles during the glide phase of their trajectory, when they are most vulnerable.
b) Advanced radar systems such as the new generation Long-Range Discrimination Radar are designed to detect and track hypersonic weapons.
c) Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) are laser-based systems being explored as potential countermeasures for hypersonic threats.
DragonFire DEW fires during a trial by the UK MOD in Jan 2024. (Photo: UK MoD / Open Government License
Despite Putin’s claim, Russia has not provided conclusive evidence that the Oreshnik missile is operationally deployed or that it has been tested in conditions replicating modern Western missile defense environments. So far, Russia has used Oreshnik once and against a country that does not have Western air defense systems capable of shooting down hypersonic missiles.
According to Maxim Starchak, an expert on Russian nuclear policy and strategic weapons, Moscow tends to exaggerate its capabilities and “itself may not actually know if air defense systems can intercept this [Oreshnik] missile. These claims remain unsubstantiated without tests or real combat attempts to shoot it down.”
Previous tests of Russian hypersonic weapons, such as the Avangard glide vehicle, have demonstrated capabilities but also faced skepticism regarding their real-world applicability and effectiveness.
Furthermore, the US and its allies have conducted successful interceptions of fast-moving targets in controlled environments. For example, tests of THAAD and Aegis systems have demonstrated their ability to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles, albeit inconsistently against hypersonic targets.
Putin’s statement fits a pattern of emphasizing Russia’s advanced military capabilities to assert strategic dominance and influence international perception. Previously, he made similar claims about the impossibility of intercepting other weapons systems, including the Sarmat ICBM and the Zircon hypersonic missile.
Despite Russian claims that the missile is on “combat alert,” the Sarmat has faced significant setbacks since its 2022 flight test, with four failed launches, the latest occurring on 21 Sep 2024.
The Zircon missile, capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 9, is one the Kremlin’s fastest hypersonic weapons.
Courtesy of graphicnews.com and Getty Images
Nevertheless, when Russia launched two Zircon missiles at Kiev on 25 Mar, according to Ukrainian sources, both were intercepted by air defense systems.
Photographs of missile debris were later published. Systems like the Patriot and the SAMP/T can destroy the Zircon in its terminal phase, slowing to Mach 4.5, a view supported by Western analysts.
“The good news is that in missile warfare, especially dealing with Russian weapons, ‘claimed’ and ‘actual’ capabilities are often very different. … Is Zircon an undefeatable superweapon: NO. Is learning how to counter it difficult, YES,” Sharpe wrote 3 Apr 2024 in The Telegraph.
Sources:
US will not return nuclear weapons to Ukraine
Putin Approves New Budget With Record Defense Spending
Putin claims new Oreshnik missile is unstoppable, sparking doubts
Clinton regrets persuading Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons
Human Rights Watch (HRW) Urges ICC Member States to Address Threats to Tribunal
Chief prosecutor Karim Khan posing for a picture at the International Criminal Court (ICC) on 27 May 2022. The Kremlin put Khan on a ‘wanted’ list after the Hague-based court issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin in Mar 2022. (Photo: AFP)
HRW made the appeal in a statement issued before the annual session of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) Assembly of States Parties in The Hague.
HRW said the court has been under “extreme pressure” since ICC judges issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant and Hamas’s Mohammed Deif. These include threats from US legislators who said they would impose sanctions on ICC officials and those cooperating with the court.
“ICC warrants, whether against Vladimir Putin or Benjamin Netanyahu, send a critical message that no one is above the law,” said Liz Evenson, international justice director at Human Rights Watch.
“ICC member countries should make a commitment during their annual meeting to take all necessary steps to ensure that the ICC’s crucial work for justice can continue without obstruction.”
Notably, Special Counsel Jack Smith (pictured below) completed an assignment successfully prosecuting war criminals at the ICC before returning to the US to deal with Donald J. Trump.
Rejecting the arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu would make the US a rogue superpower.
President Biden has already recklessly said Netanyahu’s arrest warrant is “outrageous.” I doubt that US-AG Merrick Garland would agree with his boss since he assigned the former ICC prosecutor to go after Donald Trump. If the US does not abide by the rule of law, why would Washington expect its citizens or other countries to respect domestic or international laws?
Moreover, the loathsome Benjamin Netanyahu– the “curse of Israel”– disgustingly went to a familiar tool in his bag by slandering those who say he is committing war crimes in Gaza as being antisemitic. Netanyahu uttered the same blasphemies earlier this year when hundreds of anti-war protests erupted on US campuses (and throughout the world) protesting the Nakba.
Well, that makes everybody pictured below, you, the loyal Followers of the Watch, as well as Coriolanus antisemites. How about them apples?
US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) who ran for President in 2016.
(Undated image courtesy of Forward Magazine)
Holocaust survivor Rene Lichtman (R) at a vigil in Farmington Hills, MI protesting the ongoing Nakba on 30 Jun 2024. (Photo: WSWS)
Climate activist Greta Thunberg (R) with friends (social media)
Sanders: It Is Not Antisemitic to Oppose Israel’s Assault of Gaza | Truthout
‘Sophisticated’ Spy Ring Passed Secrets to Russia for Three Years
Bulgarian nationals Katrin Ivanova (L) and Vanya Gaberova (R) are on trial at the Old Bailey alongside Tihomir Ivanov Ivanchev. (Imagery: Elizabeth Cook / PA)
A “sophisticated” UK-based spy ring passed secrets to Russia for nearly three years and gathered information on targets across Europe.
Three Bulgarian nationals – Katrin Ivanova (33), Vanya Gaberova (30), and Tihomir Ivanov Ivanchev (39) – allegedly carried out surveillance on individuals and places of interest to Russia.
Among those said to have been targeted were an award-winning Bulgarian journalist who worked with the late Russian opposition dissident Alexei Navalny. The journalist was allegedly the subject of discussions about killing or kidnapping him and taking him to Moscow. Other alleged discussions concerned the deployment of two female defendants in a “honey trap” ploy to capture more information.
Alison Morgan KC, opening the case for the prosecution on Thursday, said: “Over a period of nearly three years they sought to gather information for the benefit of Russia, an enemy of the UK, information about various targets, both people and physical locations. Information of particular interest to the Russian state. Their activity caused obvious and inevitable prejudice to the safety and interests of the United Kingdom.”
She said of the defendant’s alleged activities: “It was high risk and it was highly sophisticated. The defendants earned significant sums for what they were doing. None of them engaged in this activity blindly.”
The defendants allegedly worked with a number of other people who spied for Russia between 2020 and 2023 in London, Vienna, Valencia, Montenegro, and Stuttgart.
The spy ring included two more defendants, Orlin Roussev and Biser Dzhambazov, who have pleaded guilty to espionage charges. The defendants plotted with a Russian agent, Jan Marsalek, who was known as “Rupert Ticz” and was said to be an Austrian national, to obtain material useful to Russia.
Jurors were told that Dzhambazov (43) was in a relationship with both Ivanova and Gaberova, and the latter was formerly involved with Ivanchev.
Morgan said the defendants may try to “rely on the relationships” and suggest they were misled “or were simply following people around Europe out of love or dedication”.
The defendants were tasked to spy on prominent individuals of obvious interest to Russia, often because they were dissidents who had fled their homeland for their own safety. A range of activities were alleged including surveillance operations, following people around and finding out where they were and then reporting back to the Russian state.
Their nefarious activities allegedly included surveillance in 2022 at the Patch barracks, a US military base in Stuttgart, Germany, which the defendants believed to be a location where Ukrainian forces were being trained.
US Army Gen. Mark Milley, CJCS, meets with leaders responsible for the training of Ukrainians at Grafenwoehr, Germany, 16 Jan 2023. (Photo: Jordan Sivayavirojna / US Army)
Messages were exchanged between Marsalek and Roussev in which they discussed “options” relating to Christo Grozev, a Bulgarian journalist who has been the lead Russia investigator with Bellingcat, the award-winning investigative journalism group. These options were said to have included carrying out surveillance of him, kidnapping him and taking him to Moscow, killing him and infiltrating Bellingcat.
The defendants deny conspiring to collect information for a purpose prejudicial to the safety and interest of the state between 30 Aug 2020 and 8 Feb 2023. Ivanova also denies possessing 18 false identity documents, including British and other passports and documents.
The trial is expected to go on until February next year.
Another Russian espionage ring has been rendered ineffective by the British security services. As non-diplomats, these spies will be incarcerated once convicted and no doubt they will be traded in a future prisoner swap with the Kremlin. The head of MI6 recently told a conference in Paris that Russian espionage and sabotage operations in Europe are at the highest in 40 years. British and friendly intelligence services have less than 50 days to work with the USIC before the pro-Kremlin Donald Trump assumes the Presidency. Rumors are already circulating that high-ranking CIA personnel are going to resign once Trump becomes POTUS next year.
Source:
Hawaii: Avian Influenza Confirmed in Backyard Flock of Birds
(Map: Courtesy of welt-atlas.de)
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was detected in a backyard flock of various birds in Central O‘ahu. The property involved is within the area served by the Wahiawā Wastewater Treatment Plant, where a recent detection was reported through the National Wastewater Surveillance System.
This is the first confirmed detection of the virus in Hawai‘i. The virus detected here matches the strain that has infected domestic poultry on the US mainland.
HPAI causes severe illness with a high mortality rate among affected birds. With the confirmation of avian influenza, HDOA today issued a quarantine order on the site which requires that all birds on the property be depopulated and the premises cleaned and disinfected. While confirmatory tests were being conducted, HDOA had placed a hold order, which prevents movement of any animals from the property.
Human illness with H5N1 is uncommon and reported symptoms among humans infected in the US have been mild. People in Hawai‘i are unlikely to get sick from H5N1 influenza at this time. H5N1 infection in humans on the US mainland have been reported almost exclusively among workers who have close contact with infected animals. The most common symptoms of avian flu in humans are conjunctivitis and upper respiratory symptoms like sore throat and cough. Sustained human-to-human transmission has not been reported.
To report multiple or unusual illnesses in poultry, livestock, or other wild birds or animals, contact HDOA Animal Industry Division at 808-483-7102 or 808-837-8092.
Residents who believe they may have been exposed to sick birds or other wildlife should contact the Disease Outbreak Control Division Disease Reporting Line at 808-586-4586 for additional guidance.
Americans can sleep well knowing that their next Commander-in-Chief and his tentative picks to lead critical USG health agencies have been roundly denounced as crackpots, dunces, and quacks. Only during the confirmation hearings can the US Senate save Americans from potential epidemics at the hands of mountebanks like Mehmet Oz, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Dr. Marty Makary, Janette Nesheiwat, or Paul Weldon.
Source:
Department of Agriculture | Avian Influenza Confirmed in Backyard Flock of Birds
China’s New Fighter Jet Compared to US F-35
Top, the US F-35; bottom Chinese J-35A Falcon Hawk. (Photo: AFP)
Produced by the Chinese aviation company, Shenyang, the new jet took more than a decade to build and strongly resembles the F-35 made by Lockheed Martin. USAF Chief of Staff David Allvin said “you could practically see where they got their blueprints.” In 2013, Defense Acquisitions Chief Frank Kendall told a Senate hearing that stolen F-35 data helped US rivals speed up their own fifth-generation fighter projects.
The J-31 is more svelte than the F-35, despite the fact that the Chinese model has two engines, while the US-made F-35 has one.
Chinese designers may have chosen to build their aircraft with two engines to give the jet more power, suggested one analyst.
But the design could have also been chosen for a more primitive reason: the second engine could serve as a backup in case of mission failure.
“Maybe they have less faith in the reliability of the aircraft,” says Greg Malandrino, a former US fighter pilot.
Chinese pilots will have to make do with a smaller workspace than American F-35 pilots. The US fighter jet’s cockpit is cushier, roomier, with a bigger canopy, while the Chinese plane’s cockpit reflects “a more utilitarian approach to pilot ergonomics.”
Chinese J-35A fighter (top) and American F-35 (bottom). (Photo: Chen Yang/Xinhua via Getty Images)
Malandrino, says he did not notice any significant differences in the design of the two cockpits. The cockpit of a fighter jet, whether Chinese or American, is not known for comfort. The seat is designed to provide the pilot with a way out of a tricky situation.
“You’re sitting on ejection seat,” he says. “It’s basically a rocket seat.”
All variants of the F-35 have a top speed of 1.6 Mach; the J-35 1.8 Mach. But in terms of stealth, the J-31 spits a lot of smoke from its exhaust pipe when it’s in the air, which could make it easier to detect the plane.
But experts agree that the real power of a fighter jet lies in the overall strength of the military they serve. Says Forecast International: “People are thinking about two jets operating in a dog fight. But in the real world, it depends on the entire combat system.”
“Until the two countries fight, it’s just guesswork. You really don’t know till the shooting starts.”
These two jets represent the cream of the crop in air superiority. Chinese espionage and copycatting US technology have evidently been successful. Decades ago, the USSR manufactured a space shuttle called the “Buran“ which looked like a twin of the US Space Shuttle, thanks to the KGB. See photo below. Air-to-air combat exercises will sharpen the skills of USAF and Chinese pilots, but as the analyst above wrote, no one knows the outcome until the battle joins.
Sources:
China debuted a new fighter plane. How does it compare to the F-35? – Radio Free Asia
The Reason Why This Soviet Space Shuttle Looks So Familiar | The National Interest
Morocco: One Dead, Twelve Stricken with Food Poisoning
(Map courtesy of worldeasyguides.com)
A 24-year-old man has died and 12 other people have contracted a foodborne illness caused by consumption of snacks from a fast-food restaurant in Agadir city. Some of the critically ill victims were admitted to emergency rooms. The authorities opened an investigation into the incident and the suspected restaurant has been temporarily closed.
This incident of food poisoning questions the monitoring services and their role in enforcing health codes and punishing violators.
The Al-Salam neighborhood and the Jet Residence area of Agadir have become a destination for professionals serving ready-made and fast food, due to its large population density and large variety of foods.
Westerners traveling to exotic destinations for vacation must exercise caution with the comestibles they enjoy. As we saw in Laos, alcohol poisoning killed several people at a resort. In this incident, locals were sickened and one killed. Tourists may want to inspect food inspection certificates at restaurants in foreign destinations, but that is not a guarantee of anything as these documents could easily be forged.
Source:
Marmot’s First Bath with Electric Brush
This marmot is simply having the time of its life. Nice and clean! Imagine doing this to your cat or dog?
Footnote: Marmots are large ground squirrels with 15 species living in Asia, Europe, and North America. They are the heaviest members of the squirrel family. These herbivores are active during the summer, when they can often be found in groups, but are not seen during the winter, when they hibernate underground.
Will a domesticated marmot like the one above also need to hibernate during winter?
Source:
Coriolanus 